The shape doesn't bend

Two macro knobs against the real 2007 angel data: how well you pick, and how many deals you write. The question is the portfolio's IRR and whether it beats the market — and the median moves with a nudge while the tail that actually pays barely budges.

Settings

The macro knobs

Performance vs 2007 macro knob

How well you pick

One macro dial for the whole book, anchored to the 2007 study: the midpoint is the All exits baseline, left slides toward the Low-diligence cohort (worse), right toward High (>40 hrs of diligence). The readout is the dollar-weighted return relative to the 2007 book.

Portfolio & market

Deals in the book

Average hold

Market return

More deals tames variance — the book's median climbs toward its mean — but only if the winners are in the draw. The holding period isn't a slider: it's the study's per-band averages (losses ripen fast, big winners take ~6 years), weighted by where your book lands. The market line is the same money compounding liquidly over that hold.

The shape deals vs. dollars by multiple

share of deals

share of returned dollars

2007 dollars (baseline)

Portfolio IRR distribution equal-weight book

median IRR

mean

market

loses money

The shape deals vs. dollars by multiple

Portfolio IRR distribution equal-weight book

What the knobs do vs. the 2007 book